IPO noteOpens 21 Oct · closes 23 Oct · lists 28 Oct
Jio Platforms IPO: what the band prices in
Mobile, broadband and digital services. India's largest connectivity business, read from its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) of June 19, 2026, with the band from the red herring prospectus filed on October 14.
Price band
₹1,065–1,119
Face value ₹10
Lot
12 shares
₹13,428 at the cap
Dates
21–23 Oct
Lists 28 Oct
Market value at the cap
₹10.3 lakh cr
921.9 crore shares after the issue
Issue
₹30,213 cr, all new shares
No offer-for-sale; 2.9% of the company
01
Where the band sits
The range of what the business is worth, on the same axis as the price band.
What the business is worth, per share
₹352 – ₹525
Weighted range of nine methods at the cap price of ₹1,119. The faint middle is ₹427. At the floor price the range is ₹352–525 too: the band changes only the cash the issue brings in.
Chart: value range ₹352–525 a share (mid ₹427); price band ₹1,065–1,119, which is 2.0–2.1× the top of the range. The cap price is 162% above the mid; against the low end the margin of safety is −69%.
Confidence: Low39/100Why?
The score is five parts weighted together. Low confidence means the middle of the range deserves less weight than its ends.
Methods agree0 · weight 30%How close the nine methods land to each other. Here the intrinsic and peer methods disagree by more than three times (dispersion 77%).
Forecast steadiness73 · weight 25%A subscription business with revenue growth that moves 12% a year is easier to forecast than most.
Years of history44 · weight 20%Three years of restated accounts; the engine wants five or more.
Forensic health60 · weight 15%No restatements, no audit qualifications; the full accounting checks need a listed history.
Terminal dependence30 · weight 10%Three quarters of the cash-flow value sits beyond year ten.
02
What the band prices in
Working back from the price to the growth it needs (a reverse DCF), with the same cost of capital as the range.
At ₹1,119 the issue is priced for 26% revenue growth a year for ten years at a 30% operating margin; the company has grown 16% a year at a 30% margin.
Base rate: of Indian listed companies with revenue above ₹25,000 crore growing 10–20% a year (121 cases), the median went on to grow 9% a year over the next five; 4% kept above 25%. The three restated years were all tariff-repair years: 17% growth in FY25 on an industry-wide hike, 14.6% in FY26 p. 390.
Implied at the cap price
Price to FY26 earnings (₹32.6 a share after the issue)34.3×
Enterprise value to FY26 EBITDA, counting spectrum dues and leases as debt15.6×
Enterprise value to FY26 revenue7.8×
Price to book after the issue (₹397 a share)2.8×
Enterprise value ₹11.4 lakh crore: market value ₹10.3 lakh crore plus ₹1.62 lakh crore of borrowings, spectrum dues and leases after the ₹27,500 crore prepayment, less ₹45,700 crore of cash and investments after the issue.
03
The offer
Who sells, where the money goes, and what existing holders paid.
Who is sellingNobody: every share in the issue is newFresh issue of 27 crore shares; no offer-for-sale by the promoter or the 2020 investors p. 64.
What the money does₹27,500 cr prepays foreign-currency bank loansUS$ 2,626 million and JPY 86,737 million of term loans at 1.40–5.18%, due 2028 p. 108–111. The rest, capped at 25% of the issue, is general corporate purposes. The business is unchanged by the issue: the money repays the cheapest debt on the balance sheet rather than building anything.
Promoter stake: 66.4% before, 64.4% after p. 97
Before66.4%
After64.4%
Reliance Industries stays in control. The 2020 investors (Meta 9.98%, Google 7.73%, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund 2.31%, KKR, Vista, Silver Lake, General Atlantic, Mubadala, ADIA, TPG, L Catterton, Intel and Qualcomm) hold 33.6% together p. 99–100.
What existing holders paid, against the cap of ₹1,119
Promoter (Reliance Industries)12.5×Cost about ₹90 a share: 496 crore shares at ₹10 in 2019 and 99 crore at ₹488.34 on conversion in 2020 p. 90–92. The SEBI cost-of-acquisition table reads "not applicable" because no share changed hands in the last three years p. 125–126.
Investors who came in during 20202.0–2.3×Cost ₹488–549 a share; the cap is about 13–15% a year on their money over six years.
When locked-in shares can be sold p. 94–96
6 monthsThe 2020 investors' sharesabout Apr 2027
1 yearThe promoter's holding above its minimumabout Oct 2027
3 yearsThe promoter's minimum contribution, 20% of the companyabout Oct 2029
Reservations: up to ₹500 crore for employees at a ₹54 discount and ₹2,500 crore for Reliance Industries shareholders, as reported from the red herring prospectus.
04
The business
What it sells, how it earns, and how much depends on the group.
What it sellsMobile plans, home broadband and digital services to consumers and businessesReliance Jio Infocomm, the operator, is the business: prepaid recharges alone are 77% of revenue p. 387. The apps (MyJio, JioTV, JioSaavn, JioAICloud) and enterprise services ride on the same network. The DRHP reports one segment p. 374.
How it earnsMonthly plans, many customers
ARPU, average revenue per user a month p. 119₹214
Customers, of which 268.5 million on 5G524.4 million
Fixed broadband homes27.1 million
Data per customer a month42.3 GB
Churn, customers leaving a month1.67%
How much depends on the group77% of revenue passes through Reliance Retail
Reliance Retail is the sole distributor of prepaid services; Reliance Industries supplies project execution, data centres and back-office support; the "Jio" brand is Reliance's, licensed royalty-free and terminable if it loses control p. 32–34, 209–210.
Scale, as the company's commissioned report (Analysys Mason, June 2026) and TRAI data put it: 49.95% of India's wireless broadband customers, 42.6% of fixed broadband, about 60% of wireless data traffic, 1.4 times the 4G and 5G customers of the second operator p. 116, 388. The company calls itself a technology platform; the numbers say connectivity. The engine gives it no moat premium because its return on capital, counting ₹1.9 lakh crore of spectrum and leases, has sat at its cost of capital in all three years: return on average capital employed by the company's own definition fell from 12.8% to 10.8% while margins rose p. 119.
05
The numbers
Three fiscal years from the restated consolidated accounts, in ₹ crore p. 67–69.
| ₹ crore unless shown | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue from operations | 1,09,558 | 1,28,218 | 1,46,885 |
| Growth | — | 17.0% | 14.6% |
| EBITDA margin | 50.2% | 50.1% | 51.9% |
| Finance cost | 4,048 | 4,905 | 8,653 |
| Profit after tax | 21,423 | 26,109 | 30,049 |
| Cash from operations | 57,662 | 68,156 | 77,556 |
| Cash capex (network, spectrum, intangibles) | 53,607 | 44,349 | 34,255 |
| EBITDA less cash capex | 1,449 | 19,902 | 42,071 |
| Net debt incl. spectrum dues and leases | 1,73,624 | 1,66,643 | 1,45,591 |
| Return on avg capital employed (company definition) | 12.8% | 12.5% | 10.8% |
Cash follows profit: operating cash flow is 2.6 times profit, because ₹27,249 crore of depreciation is not cash p. 68–69.
Cash tax is near zero: current tax ₹118 crore on ₹40,353 crore of profit before tax; deferred tax ₹10,182 crore. Reported profit bears the full charge; the cash charge rises as the spectrum and 5G depreciation shield runs off p. 68.
FY24 and FY25 profits were flattered by interest on 5G spectrum and borrowings being capitalised; that stopped in the fourth quarter of FY25 and finance cost rose 76% in FY26 p. 391.
Net debt here counts ₹1.05 lakh crore of deferred spectrum dues to the Department of Telecommunications at 7.2–8.65% and ₹13,888 crore of leases p. 320, 358. The company's own "net leverage" of 0.36× leaves both out p. 119; on all three, net debt is 1.9 times EBITDA.
No differences between audited and restated figures, no audit qualifications, no emphasis of matter in any of the three years; joint auditors Deloitte Haskins & Sells and Chaturvedi & Shah, unchanged p. 78, 375–376.
Working capital is a source of cash: receivables are six days of revenue, and ₹11,121 crore of recharge money is held as revenue received in advance p. 67, 323. Contingent liabilities are ₹1,502 crore, 0.4% of net worth p. 357; a further ₹6,767 crore of GST demands on tower-equipment input credit is not treated as contingent, on a Supreme Court precedent p. 415.
06
Red flags
By severity, each with its evidence and page. Nothing in the offer structure itself flags: no offer-for-sale, no pre-IPO placement, no recent cheap allotments, no unnamed acquisitions, a monitoring agency to be appointed p. 113, no pledge, no promoter loans, no auditor change.
mediumDistribution, brand, data centres and project execution all run through the group77% of revenue passes through Reliance Retail; related-party revenue is ₹6,330 crore (4.2% of income) and group-paid expenses about 9% of total expenses. The limits, up to ₹2,10,800 crore of voucher sales to Reliance Retail for FY27, were approved by Reliance Industries' shareholders, not Jio's p. 32–34, 71–75, 387.
mediumThe "Jio" brand is owned by Reliance IndustriesLicensed royalty-free; the promoter may terminate on loss of management control p. 31–32, 209–210.
mediumGroup companies compete in fixed broadbandDen, Hathway and GTPL entities with 16.74 million broadband and cable subscribers p. 51.
medium₹1.18 lakh crore of spectrum dues and leases sit outside the headline leverageThe net-leverage KPI counts borrowings only p. 120, 320, 358.
lowCash tax near zero; deferred tax ₹10,182 croreThe shield runs off with depreciation p. 68.
lowInterest capitalised until Q4 FY25 flattered earlier profitFinance cost up 76% in FY26 p. 391.
lowThe issue is 2.9% of equity; the proceeds change littleThe listing creates a price for the promoter's stake, which stays at 64.4% p. 64, 97.
lowKey managerial pay rose to ₹80.6 crore from ₹20.8 croreNote 36.2 p. 357.
lowThe promoter carries tax claims and old SEBI matters of its ownReliance Industries: ₹31,368 crore of direct-tax and ₹8,942 crore of indirect-tax claims; a 2007 share-trading matter with ₹447 crore to be disgorged with interest, under appeal. None involve Jio Platforms p. 411–415.
07
Peers at the cap price
Jio at ₹1,119 against listed telecom companies. Jio's multiples are the engine's at the cap; the peers' are from exchange filings when the engine ran; margins and ARPU are the DRHP's own peer table p. 118, 123.
| Company | P/E | EV/EBITDA | EV/Sales | EBITDA margin | ARPU | How it compares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jio Platforms at ₹1,119 | 34.3× | 15.6× | 7.8× | 51.9% | ₹214 | At the cap price, FY26 figures. |
| Bharti Airtel | 37.5× | 10.5× | 5.8× | 57.5% (58.6% India) | ₹257 India mobile | The comparable that matters. Jio is cheaper on earnings but dearer on EBITDA because its spectrum dues and leases are debt-like and its depreciation is higher; Airtel's India business earns a higher margin and ARPU. |
| Bharti Hexacom | 43.3× | 17.4× | 9.0× | — | — | Airtel's listed circles (Rajasthan, North-East): the same model, smaller, growing faster, and richer on every multiple. |
| Tata Communications | 47.3× | 12.9× | 2.3× | — | — | Enterprise data, not consumer mobile: a loose match with too thin a margin to anchor a multiple. |
| Vodafone Idea | 4.65× | — | — | 42.4% | ₹174 | In the DRHP's table but left out of the engine run: negative net worth and an FY26 profit made of ₹58,607 crore of exceptional items. |
08
Nine methods, two answers
The intrinsic methods sit far below the peer methods. That gap is the main finding.
Intrinsic methods
₹187–416Peer methods
₹672–1,478The two families disagree by more than three times. The band sits with the peers: it is priced as if Jio already earns, in the market's eyes, what Airtel and Hexacom earn. The intrinsic methods say the cash flows do not yet support that, because Jio's return on capital, counting spectrum, is about its cost of capital (10.8% against 11.2%), so growth adds nothing in the terminal value.
From the business's own cash and profit
Discounted cash flow (FCFF), weight 37%₹148–416₹148–416
Free cash flow to equity, 10%₹327₹327
Justified P/E, 9%₹210₹210
Justified EV/EBITDA, 9%₹300₹300
Earnings power value (no growth), 5%₹187₹187
Owner earnings, 5%₹282₹282
From what listed peers trade at
Peer P/E (weight halved as the outlier), 5%₹1,318–1,478₹1,318–1,478
Peer EV/EBITDA, 9%₹794–1,070₹794–1,070
Peer price to free cash flow, 9%₹578–1,011₹578–1,011
Weighted range₹352–525₹352–525
Band ₹1,065–1,119IntrinsicPeerAxis ₹0–1,600
Chart: discounted cash flow ₹148–416, free cash flow to equity ₹327, justified P/E ₹210, justified EV/EBITDA ₹300, earnings power value ₹187, owner earnings ₹282; peer P/E ₹1,318–1,478, peer EV/EBITDA ₹794–1,070, peer price to free cash flow ₹578–1,011; weighted range ₹352–525; band ₹1,065–1,119.
Cost of capital: risk-free rate 6.5% (the 10-year government bond), equity risk premium 5.5%, a default industry beta of 0.9 relevered to 1.0 (fewer than three peers carry a usable beta), cost of equity 12.0%, cost of debt 7.6% before tax at a synthetic A rating, debt 13.6% of capital, weighted cost of capital 11.2%, terminal growth 5.5%. Sensitivity: the discounted cash flow runs from ₹201 a share at a 13.2% cost of capital to ₹440 at 9.2%; terminal growth between 4% and 7% moves it by under ₹15 at any cost of capital.
09
Three scenarios
Bear, base and bull, with what each assumes and what would show it. The values are the cash-flow method's under each story; the published range blends them with the peer and justified multiples.
Bear25% likely
₹148Growth
13%Margin
24%Cost of capital
12.2%Net additions stall after the 5G push and the next tariff hike slips; content, equipment and spectrum costs keep rising; the 2028–2030 spectrum renewals are paid from debt again.
Watch forNet additions under 5 million a quarter; ARPU flat for two quarters.
Base50% likely
₹296Growth
16%Margin
30%Cost of capital
11.2%Growth near 16% at first, fading toward 5.5% over ten years; a tariff repair every two to three years; the 5G and home-broadband mix lifts ARPU past ₹230; capex settles near a fifth of revenue and cash builds.
Watch forARPU above ₹230 at the FY27 exit; EBITDA margin above 52%.
Bull25% likely
₹416Growth
16%, heldMargin
30%Moat
narrowDigital services, enterprise cloud and technology licensing add revenue at low acquisition cost and start to show in a separate line; margins hold at 30% while capex intensity keeps falling; a narrow moat is credited in the terminal value.
Watch forA disclosed digital-services revenue line growing faster than connectivity.
Weighted by likelihood the three come to ₹289 a share. Every scenario sits below the band's ₹1,065.
10
The finding
The findingA finding, not a recommendation
Band above the range
The cap price is 2.6 times the engine's mid and above every intrinsic method, and it needs a decade of 26% growth to be explained by cash flows. It sits inside the range the peer multiples give, and is cheaper than Airtel on earnings. A holder at ₹1,119 is buying the market's view of Indian telecom pricing power, not the cash the business is expected to generate on the engine's assumptions.
Said plainly: you are paying ₹10.3 lakh crore for a business making ₹30,000 crore a year that grows about 15%. That makes sense only if Jio keeps Airtel-like multiples for years. That is a reading of the document, not a view on what you should do.
Listing day:not forecast. Listing prices follow demand on the day, which this note does not model. Grey-market and subscription figures describe demand for the allotment, not the value of the business.
What to watch after listing
- ARPU and net additions each quarter against the FY26 exit (₹214, 36 million a year).
- EBITDA less cash capex, which went from ₹1,449 crore to ₹42,071 crore in two years.
- Finance cost and spectrum dues outstanding; the next spectrum cycle from 2028.
- Related-party values against the approved limits, and the monitoring agency's report on the ₹27,500 crore prepayment.
- The six-month lock-in expiry for the 2020 investors, around April 2027.
- Whether the company starts reporting digital-services revenue separately from connectivity.
11
What the document cannot tell you
Only three yearsThree years of accounts cannot show a full cycle of price wars and tariff rises, and all three were tariff-repair years.
A commissioned industry reportThe market data was paid for by the company. Market shares match TRAI's subscriber data; the ARPU forecast to FY31 is the report's own.
A default beta and a no-moat readFewer than three peers carry a usable beta, so the cost of capital uses an industry default; the engine's no-moat read rests on returns that count spectrum at cost. Confidence is low for these reasons, and the range is wide by design.
Sources · Jio Platforms Limited draft red herring prospectus dated June 19, 2026, filed with SEBI (pages cited inline). Price band, lot, dates and reservations as reported by news publishers from the red herring prospectus filed on October 14, 2026; the RHP may carry a June 2026 quarter that this note does not. Peer figures from exchange filings. Value range from the Valarth valuation engine (engine 1.0.0, parameters v1-seed) run on the DRHP's restated financials at both band prices.
Note dated 16 October 2026 · How the valuation methods work