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207 lessons · three levels · free to read

Learn to read a stock, one number at a time

Every lesson explains one figure the way you would explain it to a friend: what it is, a worked example with real rupees, how to tell a good value from a bad one, and the mistakes people make with it. Start at the first level and work up.
Level 3 · Advanced

The checks professionals run

Forensic scores that look for accounts flattered by accounting, models that ask what growth a price already assumes, yardsticks for companies that make no profit yet, and the capital rules that decide how far a bank can grow.

After this level you can
  • Use Beneish, Montier and accruals as warnings to investigate, not verdicts.
  • Ask what growth today's price assumes instead of guessing what a company is worth.
  • Judge a loss-making, fast-growing company on the measures that fit it.
  • Read a bank's capital, CET1 and leverage and know how much room it has.
Take these in order

Am I paying a fair price?

Is It Cheap? · A great company can still be a poor buy at the wrong price. These compare the price with profits, sales, cash and the company's own history.

EV / free cash flow

↓ Lower is better

Enterprise value ÷ free cash flow, the cash left after the company pays to maintain and grow its assets.

ExampleAn enterprise value of ₹12,000 Cr and free cash flow of ₹600 Cr gives 20: at this rate the business takes 20 years to pay back its price in cash.
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Earnings power value upside

↑ Higher is better

What the company would be worth if its profits never grew again, compared with today's price. Positive means the price is below that no-growth value.

ExampleIf today's profit, held flat for ever, is worth ₹900 a share and the price is ₹750, the upside is +20%. Any growth comes free.
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Discount to net current assets

↑ Higher is better

Benjamin Graham's 'net-net' test: current assets (cash, receivables, stock) minus all liabilities, compared with market cap. Positive means the whole company costs less than that amount.

ExampleCash, receivables and stock of ₹800 Cr less all liabilities of ₹300 Cr leaves ₹500 Cr. At a market cap of ₹400 Cr you pay less than that and get the factories free.
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Quality-adjusted PEG upside

↑ Higher is better

How far the price could move to reach a fair value from a PEG-style model that also gives credit for business quality.

ExampleTwo companies both have a PEG of 1.5. The one with 25% ROE and no debt deserves a higher multiple, so the model shows upside for it and none for the other.
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RoE-justified P/B upside

↑ Higher is better

A fair P/B worked out from the company's return on equity (higher returns deserve a higher P/B), compared with today's P/B. Positive means room to rise.

ExampleA bank earning 18% on equity might deserve 2.5 times book. If it trades at 2.0, the upside is +25%. One earning 8% may deserve less than 1.
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P/E vs market-predicted P/E

↑ Higher is better

A model estimates the P/E a company would normally get for its growth, return on equity and size. Positive means it trades cheaper than that.

ExampleThe model says a company with this growth, ROE and size normally gets a P/E of 30. At 24 it trades 20% below what the market usually pays.
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Price/sales to growth

↓ Lower is better

Price / sales ÷ sales growth. Like PEG, but with sales instead of profit.

ExampleA price/sales of 6 with sales growing 30% a year gives 0.2. The same multiple with 10% growth gives 0.6: three times the price for each point of growth.
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Does management earn good returns on the money?

Is It Well-Run? · Returns on capital show how much profit the business makes from every rupee put into it.

Gross profit / assets

↑ Higher is better

Gross profit (sales minus the direct cost of what was sold) ÷ total assets.

ExampleSales of ₹1,000 Cr less ₹600 Cr of direct costs is ₹400 Cr of gross profit. On assets of ₹1,600 Cr that is 25%.
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Return on net operating assets

↑ Higher is better

Operating profit ÷ the assets the business needs to run, after taking out what suppliers and customers fund for it.

ExampleA retailer with ₹1,000 Cr of operating assets, of which suppliers fund ₹400 Cr, has ₹600 Cr of its own tied up. Operating profit of ₹150 Cr on that is 25%.
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Is the business getting bigger?

How Fast Is It Growing? · Growth in sales and profit over different periods, from the latest quarter to 15 years.

Sustainable growth rate

↑ Higher is better

How fast the company can grow using only its own profits, without new debt or new shares: return on equity × the share of profit it keeps.

ExampleRoE of 20% and 60% of profit kept → 12% sustainable growth.
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Actual growth ÷ sustainable growth rate. Above 1 means the company is growing faster than its own profits can pay for.

ExampleA company that can fund 12% growth from its own profits and is growing 24% shows 2.0. The difference must come from new debt or new shares.
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Could debt sink it?

Debt Check · Borrowing helps a business grow, until a bad year makes the interest hard to pay.

Goodwill / equity

↓ Lower is better

Goodwill, the premium paid above book value in past acquisitions, as a share of equity.

ExampleA company buys a rival for ₹1,000 Cr whose assets are worth ₹400 Cr. The ₹600 Cr premium is goodwill. If the purchase disappoints, it is written off against equity.
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Ohlson O-score

↓ Lower is better

Another bankruptcy-risk model, using size, debt, profits and cash. Above 0 means more than a 50% modelled chance of distress.

ExampleA small company with losses two years running and liabilities above its assets may score +1.5. A large, profitable one with little debt scores well below zero.
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What has the share price done?

Past Performance · Price returns over different periods. Useful context, never a forecast.

How much the share price grew each year, on average, over 22 years, not counting dividends.

Example₹1 lakh growing at 15% a year for 22 years becomes about ₹21 lakh. Only companies listed that long have this figure.
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How much cash comes back to owners?

Shareholder Returns · Dividends, buybacks and how much the company reinvests.

Total shareholder yield

↑ Higher is better

Dividends, buybacks and debt repaid in a year, as a share of market cap.

ExampleOn a market cap of ₹10,000 Cr: dividends of ₹200 Cr, buybacks of ₹100 Cr and ₹200 Cr of debt repaid make ₹500 Cr, a 5% yield.
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Does new investment earn good returns?

How It Spends Money · Whether the money the company puts back into the business pays off.

Incremental RoIC (3Y)

↑ Higher is better

Extra operating profit earned ÷ extra capital invested over 3 years: the return on the new money put in.

ExampleOver three years the company invested another ₹1,000 Cr and operating profit rose by ₹250 Cr. The new money is earning 25%.
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Incremental RoCE (3Y)

↑ Higher is better

The change in operating profit ÷ the change in capital employed over 3 years.

ExampleCapital employed rose from ₹4,000 Cr to ₹5,000 Cr and operating profit from ₹600 Cr to ₹700 Cr. The extra ₹1,000 Cr earns 10%, below the 15% the old capital earned.
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RoCE / revenue growth

↔ It depends

RoCE divided by sales growth. It weighs how well the company earns against how fast it grows.

ExampleRoCE of 30% with 10% sales growth gives 3: a rich business with little room to reinvest. RoCE of 15% with 30% growth gives 0.5: growth that is costly to fund.
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Can I trust the numbers?

Is It Trustworthy? · Forensic checks for accounts that look better than the business really is.

Beneish M-score

↓ Lower is better

A score from 8 accounting ratios that estimates whether profits may have been inflated.

ExampleA score of −2.6 is on the safe side of the line. A score of −1.4 is above −1.78, the level at which the model says the accounts deserve a closer look.
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Montier C-score

↓ Lower is better

Counts 0 to 6 signs that accounts look better than the business, such as profit rising while cash flow falls, or receivables piling up.

ExampleProfit up while cash flow is down, receivables growing faster than sales, and stock piling up are three signs: a score of 3 out of 6.
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Accruals quintile

↓ Lower is better

Groups companies into 5 bands by how much of their profit is backed by cash: 1 is best backed, 5 least.

ExampleA company reporting ₹100 Cr of profit and ₹110 Cr of operating cash sits in band 1. One reporting ₹100 Cr of profit and ₹20 Cr of cash sits in band 5.
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Is this lender sound, and does it earn enough for the risk it takes?

Banks and Lenders · A bank's raw material is other people's money, so the ratios that judge a factory misread it. These are the figures that matter for banks, NBFCs and housing finance companies: what they earn on lending, how many loans have gone bad, how well they are cushioned against losses, and how cheaply they fund themselves.

CET1 ratio

↑ Higher is better

Common equity tier 1: the lender's purest capital, its share capital and retained profits, as a share of risk-weighted assets.

ExampleEquity capital and reserves of ₹13,000 Cr against risk-weighted assets of ₹1,00,000 Cr: CET1 = 13%.
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What does Valarth's own valuation say about the price?

Our Valuation · Valarth values each company with several models and compares the result with today's price and with the company's peers. These figures say what that work concludes and how much weight it can bear.

The yearly revenue growth, over the next ten years, at which our cash-flow model is worth exactly today's share price.

ExampleA company's sales have grown 12% a year. Today's price is justified only if they grow 22% a year for a decade: the market is pricing in far more than the record shows.
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What the company would be worth if its profits never grew again, compared with today's price. Known as earnings power value.

ExampleA no-growth value of ₹800 a share against a price of ₹1,000 gives −20%: a fifth of the price rests on growth.
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Put a lesson to work: screen 6622 companies on any of these figures.